Research 2000, which did a poll commissioned by Blue Mass Group last week showing an 8-point Martha Coakley lead, returns with a new poll, commissioned by Daily Kos, showing a 48-48 tie. The drop comes from Brown picking up independents, even while Coakley slightly solidifies support among Democrats. The polls are very difficult to read in any special election with a late surge, and MA-Sen is no different. Some are seeing a slight bounce for Coakley, in line with internal daily tracking polls showing her back in the lead. There may be a bounce-back that the pollsters in the field late last week are not yet seeing. And the polls with the eye-popping numbers today, showing Brown with big leads, may be undercounting President Obama’s support in Massachusetts among likely voters, perhaps due to a non-response bias, with one candidate’s side more likely to take the surveys.I don't believe this election is a referendum about gay marriage. But other groups, like MassResistance (a group labeled a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center) and the Organization for Marriage do. Just look at their websites. And just because this election may not be a referendum on marriage, doesn't mean I as a voter can't vote on the marriage issue. I will vote for Coakley for many reasons, and marriage is one of them. And other reasons are Scott Brown's opposition to repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell and his opposition to repealing the Defense of Marriage Act. Those issues count, too. And his presence in the senate will make it less likely that we'll see any change in these areas.
Monday, January 18, 2010
The Senate Race
The polls of the Mass senate race are all over the place. Some put Brown in the lead, both by small and large margins, others have a virtual tie, while some internal polls have Coakley in a slight lead. Here's a good analysis from David Dayen of Fire Dog Lake: